Detección de burbujas en el precio de viviendas: evidencia para los países de la OECD entre 1970 y 2015
Resumen
Utilizando una metodología econométrica de quiebre estructural propuesta por Homm y Breitung (2012) en series de precios nominales de casas desde 1970 hasta el segundo trimestre del 2015 se detecta la presencia de burbujas para 14 de las 18 economías avanzadas analizadas. Este resultado se encuentra acorde con lo obtenido por Engsted et al.(2015), que emplean un test de cointegración entre precios y rentas que a su vez admite la presencia de un componente explosivo que identifican como una burbuja en precios. Se concluye que lo obtenido es importante porque presenta al análisis de los precios nominales como un indicador temprano de la posible presencia de una burbuja en precios en el sector inmobiliario.Palabras clave:
Burbuja de precios, bienes raíces, ruptura estructural, economías avanzadasReferencias
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