De TLCAN a USMCA: Dos es compañía, tres es una multitud
Resumen
La renegociación del TLCAN estuvo rodeada por una atmósfera dramática, tal como lo predijo la Ministra de Asuntos Exteriores de Canadá, Chrystia Freeland. Las negociaciones tuvieron lugar en un contexto de medidas comerciales unilaterales, el enfoque mercantilista del presidente Trump hacia la política comercial, y la preferencia especificada de los Estados Unidos por los acuerdos comerciales bilaterales. Este artículo sostiene que, en su mayor parte, las relaciones económicas, políticas y culturales en los países del TLCAN son de naturaleza bilateral, pero con importantes cadenas de producción trilateral en sectores específicos, especialmente en el sector automotriz. Más allá de estos sectores trilaterales, la relación entre Canadá y México juega un papel relativamente menor. Sin embargo, reemplazar el TLCAN con acuerdos bilaterales habría colocado a Canadá y México en desventaja, en relación con los Estados Unidos, en términos de atraer inversión extranjera directa. Sin embargo, los intereses canadienses y mexicanos no siempre coinciden, ni tampoco sus posiciones al negociar. Por ejemplo, México estaba dispuesto a renunciar al Capítulo 19 de solución de controversias para diferencias comerciales, mientras que Canadá insistió en mantenerlo en su lugar. Finalmente, el Capítulo 10 de la USMCA preserva este mecanismo de solución de controversias para las tres partes. Canadá estaba dispuesto a renunciar al Capítulo 11 del TLCAN sobre disputas de inversiones extranjeras, mientras que México aceptó una versión modificada. El resultado es un acuerdo trilateral con elementos bilaterales significativos, así como elementos globales que servirán como un posible modelo en futuras negociaciones megaregionales y multilaterales.Palabras clave:
USMCA, TLCAN, negociaciones, Estados Unidos, México, Canadá, renegociacionesReferencias
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