Impacto de la Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta en los flujos comerciales bilaterales
Resumen
Este estudio tiene como objetivo de evaluar el impacto de la Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta sobre el comercio bilateral entre China y los países socios. Por lo tanto, se ha elaborado un modelo de gravedad Panel EGLS con datos de 123 países de 2012 a 2019 que incluye variables del modelo de gravedad estándar como la distancia geográfica y sociocultural, el ingreso local. Este modelo se ha mejorado mediante la introducción de una variable ficticia que representa la membresía del país socio en el IFR y/o en la OMC. Los resultados muestran que las variables de gravedad estándar tienen sus efectos habituales, un impacto negativo de la distancia, mientras que los ingresos locales y el hecho de compartir un idioma común tienen un efecto positivo. La pertenencia a la OMC también tiene un impacto positivo en el comercio bilateral entre los países considerados. Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta también tiene un impacto positivo en el comercio bilateral entre China y los países socios, de ahí sus beneficios para ambos. Este impacto positivo se evalúa para los países socios sin efectos regionales. Este impacto positivo es más fuerte en las regiones de las rutas principales, Medio Oriente, Europa, el Sur y Este de Asia, mientras que es menor en otras regiones como Latin America y el Norte de África.Palabras clave:
IFR, China, comercio bilateral, modelo de gravedad, Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta, Panel EGLSReferencias
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